基于偏最小二乘回归的冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数的特征诊断     

闫恒乾  洪梅  张韧  朱伟军  马晨晨  余丹丹 《气象科学》2018,38(5):596-605

针对现有风暴轴指数分析大多采用相关分析等较为简单方法,难以对风暴轴指数变化有效诊断分析的问题,引入偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least Square Regression,PLS)的线性方法和核偏最小二乘回归方法(Kernel Partial Least Square Regression,KPLS),对冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数变化进行了特征诊断研究,并与传统的线性无偏最小二乘回归结果进行了试验比对。结果表明:偏最小二乘回归方法的诊断结果能够更好地反映风暴轴内部变化规律,并有效降低诊断误差。对于PNYI(北太平洋风暴轴纬度指数),采用r0. 2的因子筛选方案(r为因子与风暴轴指数的相关系数)并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳;对于PNXI(北太平洋风暴轴经度指数)和PNII(北太平洋风暴轴强度指数),采用全因子方案并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳。  相似文献   

Performance of shape indices and classification schemes for characterising perceptual shape complexity of building footprints in GIS     

Melih Basaraner  Sinan Cetinkaya 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(10):1952-1977

Shape characterisation is important in many fields dealing with spatial data. For this purpose, numerous shape analysis and recognition methods with different degrees of complexity have so far been developed. Among them, relatively simple indices are widely used in spatial applications, but their performance has not been investigated sufficiently, particularly for building footprints (BFs). Therefore, this article focuses on BF shape characterisation with shape indices and classification schemes in a GIS environment. This study consists of four phases. In the first phase, the criteria for BF shape complexity were identified, and accordingly, benchmark data was constructed by human experts in three shape complexity categories. In the second phase, 18 shape indices were selected from the literature and automatically computed in GIS. The performance of these indices was then statistically assessed with histograms, correlation matrix and boxplots, and consequently four indices were found to be appropriate for further investigation. In the third phase, two new indices (Equivalent Rectangular index and Roughness index) were proposed with the objective to measure some BF shape characteristics more efficiently. The proposed indices also were found to be appropriate with the same statistical assessment procedures. In the final phase, BF shape complexity categories were created with the pairs of six appropriate indices and four choropleth mapping classification schemes (equal intervals, natural break, standard deviation, and custom) in GIS. The performance of the index–scheme pairs was assessed against the benchmark data. The findings demonstrated that both new indices and two of the selected indices (Convexity and Rectangularity) delivered higher performance. The custom classification scheme was found more ideal to reveal absolute shape complexity with the index value ranges derived from the boxplots while the other classification schemes were more appropriate to reveal relative shape complexity.  相似文献   

Microbial activity promotes the enrichment of cobalt over nickel on hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts     

P. P. Sujith  D. Ramanan  P. A. LokaBharathi 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2017,35(8):1158-1167

The different mineral phases of the ferromanganese (Fe–Mn) crusts stem from the interaction of biotic and abiotic components. It is therefore vital to study the activity of these components to decipher their contribution to the enrichment/depletion of metals in the crust. Thus, the present study examined sorption and release of Co and Ni by Fe-Mn crusts with associated microbial communities in the presence and absence of the metabolic poison sodium azide (15?mM). The study was conducted in the presence (G⁺) and absence (G^?) of added glucose (0.1%) at temperatures of 4?±?1°C and 28?±?2°C. Results showed that the microbial community had maximal sorption of Co of 66.12?µg?g^?1 at 4?±?1°C in the absence of added glucose and 479.75?µg?g^?1 at 28?±?2°C in the presence of added glucose. Maximum sorption of Ni in the absence of added glucose was 1.89?µg?g^?1 at 4?±?1°C and release of Ni was 51.28?µg?g^?1 in the presence of added glucose. Under abiotic conditions with 15?mM sodium azide as a metabolic inhibitor, significant amounts of Co and Ni were released in the G⁺ medium. Total cell counts on the Fe-Mn crust in the presence of added glucose increased by an order of magnitude from 10⁶ to 10⁷ cells g^?1 and in the absence of added glucose remained within the order of 10⁶ cells?g^?1 irrespective of temperature of incubation. Microscopic observation of the samples from biotic incubations showed numerous bacterial cells, exopolysaccharides, and structures resembling secondary minerals formed by bacteria. The results indicate that bacteria promote the enrichment of Co and Ni on the hydrogenetic Fe-Mn crusts by sorption processes and release of Ni by reductive dissolution of the oxides. The higher enrichment of Co than Ni is attributed to the way in which microbes interact with the metals.  相似文献   

Damage response of multistorey r/c buildings with different structural systems subjected to seismic motion of arbitrary orientation          下载免费PDF全文

Konstantinos Kostinakis  Konstantinos Morfidis  Hariton Xenidis 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(12):1919-1937

In the present study the combined influence of seismic orientation and a number of parameters characterizing the structural system of Reinforced Concrete (R/C) buildings on the level of expected damages are examined. For the purposes of the above investigation eight medium‐rise buildings are designed on the basis of the current seismic codes. The structural characteristics examined are the ratio of the base shear received by the structural walls, the ratio of horizontal stiffness in two orthogonal directions and the structural eccentricity. Then, the buildings are analyzed by nonlinear time response analysis using 100 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along horizontal orthogonal axes, forming 72 different angles with the structural axes. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the Park and Ang damage index. The results of the analyses revealed that the damage level of the buildings is strongly affected by the incident angle of the ground motion. The extent at which the orientation of the seismic records influences the damage response depends on the structural system and the distance of the record to the fault rupture. As a consequence, the common practice of applying the earthquake records along the structural axes can lead to significant underestimation of structural damage. Also, it was shown that the structural eccentricity can significantly differentiate the seismic damage level, as well as the impact of the earthquake orientation on the structural damage. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

宁夏农业综合开发战略转型区划研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

史文娇  胡云锋  石晓丽  王宗  闫慧敏  任博  匡文慧  徐新良  陈延  武东波  徐自为 《地理学报》2015,70(12):1884-1896

农业综合开发战略转型区划研究,是科学适应新形势下国家对农业综合开发提出的“坚持可持续、提升竞争力”要求的前提和基础。针对已有农业区划的单一目标和单一类型划分问题,以宁夏为例,基于农业相关的耕地、气候、水、地形、地貌、项目布局、生态规划等空间数据,采用地理学综合区划的方法,提出了动态与静态结合、定性与定量结合、农业与生态结合的13项多维指标体系,提出了合理且可操作的技术流程,科学划分了包含过渡类型的一级区划（7大类型：重点开发区、“重点+限制”开发区、保护性开发区、“保护+限制”开发区、“限制+重点”开发区、“限制+保护”开发区和限制性开发区）和二级区划（24个亚类）,实现了农业可持续和生态环境保护的双重目标。本文是国家财政部明确提出农业综合开发要科学划分重点开发区、保护性开发区和限制性开发区之后,首次实现在省（区）级以乡（镇）为单位的科学划分,可为今后农业综合开发战略转型项目的科学布局和精准投入提供重要依据,为宁夏农业综合开发战略转型工作的具体落地实施提供科学保障,同时也可为其他省份或地区的农业综合开发战略转型区划工作提供有益参考。  相似文献   

黄土高原甘肃区降水变化与气候指数关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

赵一飞  邹欣庆  张勃  张多勇  许鑫王豪 《地理科学》2015,35(10):1325-1332

基于黄土高原甘肃区34个气象站1961~2010年的逐日降水资料,结合线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall法和反距离加权插值等方法,对黄土高原甘肃区降水量时空变化进行分析,利用Morlet小波、交叉小波变换和小波相干谱分析其周期特征及其与太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）、厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）指数相关关系。结果表明：研究区年降水量呈下降趋势,变化倾向率为-15.4 mm/10a,特别是20世纪90年代以来降水量下降趋势明显;就季节变化而言,降水量除冬季呈轻微增加外,其他各季均呈减少趋势,其中以秋季减少最为明显,其次为春、夏季。从空间分布来看,年降水量总体呈减少趋势,其东南地区降水量减少幅度高于西北部。研究区降水量存在2~3 a、4.3~5 a的年际振荡周期特征,呈现了同大尺度气候因子相似的变化特征;降水量与两大气候因子存在着多时间尺度的显著相关性,与PDO和ENSO存在5~5.6 a左右共振周期,位相谱月降水量变化位相比PDO和ENSO提前;低能量区降水量与PDO有3~3.5 a年的显著共振周期且接近同位相变化,与ENSO存在0~3 a和3~6 a呈负位相的共振周期。  相似文献   

Sublethal effects of a chlorinated and heated effluent on the physiology of the mussel,Mytilus edulis L.: A reduction in fitness for survival?     

《Marine pollution bulletin》2014,78(1-2):123-131

Coastal power stations entrain large volumes of cooling water, requiring biocidal treatment to prevent biological fouling. Discharged effluent is both heated and contaminated with residual traces of biocide and so it is necessary to quantify the impacts of this discharge. Cooling water from Heysham 2 nuclear power station, NW England, UK, is discharged to the intertidal area, via a culvert (to minimise erosion and maximise dilution and dispersion by directing the effluent into the receiving water at all states of the tide) within which the effluent is contained at low water. The culvert and surrounding coastal area support a population of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis). Mussel health was determined along a gradient of exposure, using three physiological indices: Scope for Growth, Gonad Mantle Index and Somatic Condition Index (K Factor). The Mussels within the culvert exhibited reduced physiological index values compared to an external site. A trend was identified down the length of the culvert, representing a gradient of exposure and indicating a potential negative effect on growth and reproductive output.  相似文献   

A comparison of wetness indices for the prediction of observed connected saturated areas under contrasting conditions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Geneviève Ali  Christian Birkel  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Chris Soulsby  Jeffrey J. McDonnell  Paolo Tarolli 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(3):399-413

For lack of other widely available spatial information, topography is often used to predict water fluxes and water quality in mesoscale watersheds. Such data have however proven to be misleading in many environments where large and flat valley bottoms and/or highly conducive soil covers determine water storage and water transport mechanisms. Also, the focus is generally on the prediction of saturation areas regardless of whether they are connected to the catchment hydrographic network or rather present in isolated topographic depressions. Here soil information was coupled with terrain data towards the targeted prediction of connected saturated areas. The focus was on the 30 km² Girnock catchment (Cairngorm Mountains, northeast Scotland) and its 3 km² sub‐catchment, Bruntland Burn in which seven field surveys were done to capture actual maps of connected saturated areas in both dry and humid conditions. The 1 km² resolution UK Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) classification was used to extract relevant, spatially variable, soil parameters. Results show that connected saturated areas were fairly well predicted by wetness indices but only in wet conditions when they covered more than 30% of the whole catchment area. Geomorphic indices including information on terrain shape, steepness, aspect, soil texture and soil depth showed potential but generally performed poorly. Indices based on soil and topographic data did not have more predictive power than those based on topographic information only: this was attributed to the coarse resolution of the HOST classification. Nevertheless, analyses provided interesting insights into the scale‐dependent water storage and transport mechanisms in both study catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

1961-2010年西北干旱区极端降水指数的时空变化分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王少平  姜逢清  吴小波  胡汝骥 《冰川冻土》2014,36(2):318-326

结合绝对阈值和百分位法定义极端降水事件的优点,提出了一种更灵敏的检测极端降水事件的方法. 该方法不仅能检测出常用降水指数无法检测到的降水量稀少地区尤其干旱区的极端降水事件,同时也能过滤掉其检测到的降水量丰富地区的虚假极端降水事件. 此方法首次被应用于统计1961年1月至2010年2月西北干旱区72个气象站点的年和季节的极端降水指数（大降水和强降水指数）,并分析了极端降水指数的时间变化趋势及其空间分布特征. 结果表明：西北干旱区春（3-5月）、秋（9-11月）、冬（12月至次年2月）三季极端降水指数无显著（P>0.05）变化趋势,夏季（6-8月）大降水的频率和降水量以及大降水降水量占总降水量的比重都显著增加;新疆地区极端降水指数为增加趋势的区域基本都分布在海拔较高（约海拔1 000 m以上）的地区;西北干旱区东部极端降水指数变化趋势的空间分布有明显的季节差异,表现为夏、秋季大部分地区为增加趋势,冬、春季大部分地区为减小趋势.  相似文献   

海陆气候事件关联规则挖掘方法     

石岩  邓敏  刘启亮  杨文涛 《地球信息科学学报》2014,16(2):182-190

近年来,异常气候事件的频发对人类的生活环境和经济发展带来严重负影响。气象学家研究表明：海洋气候异常对陆地气候异常事件的发生具有重要的诱发作用,因此,对海陆气候间的内在关联机制进行深入挖掘具有重要研究价值。本文提出了一种关联规则挖掘方法,以探索单一海洋气候指数与陆地异常气候事件间存在的关联。首先,针对陆地气候要素,采用顾及空间邻近关系的层次聚类方法进行有效气候分区,通过对各层分区结果进行相关统计分析得到有效的各区域气候序列;然后,进行顾及多重约束进行时序关联规则挖掘,以探索海陆气候要素间的关联机制;最后,通过实际算例分析得到的各气候指数与我国陆地区域异常降水事件间的关联机制结果,与实际情况高度吻合。  相似文献